2008年5月5日

從2318遠慮......到我的portfolio2

繼續....

好,講完2318遠慮,就講下portfolio

哪我這個股東會否繼續持有2318哩?答案是仍然持有,繼續安心做好公司股東,亦非常歡迎股價下跌,本股東很有誠意再增持.

係唔係有d矛盾哩?其實唔係.......

在我買入07年2318前,我已經睇過佢既business model,認同後才買入. 那時2318已作金融混業既準備,買入現在既平安銀行同建立asset management,後勤方面已作投資(現在已有兩間後勤中心,這個很重要,risk management固然加強,尤其佢係想做 lateral business,簡單哩講就係將所有product sell比一個客,你話個integration幾重要哩!!

另外買fortis我覺得係應該(都係個句:無論是被動還是主動),因為既然你要做,就找個做得最好既哩學......不過我唔期望fortis會幫到好多手(無論係 $ or knowledge/expertise)

少人提及既係2318先行係房地產同private equity,這方面我會有好大期望,第時每個大城市都
有平安xx大廈.....按現時商廈租金回報10%,都幾和味

仲有其他2318強項,各blog已詳談,下省


我上篇文出既原因係見到市場一面倒睇好2318,而忽略左一d野,其實同理,我也可以出一篇關於2628問題既文(你估佢唔少嘛?)

作為專業投資人,一定要反覆問自己問題,去評估公司情況.哩個就係我講既 對自己既投資負責....唔可以盲目附和.......

我仍然相信真理越辯越明,我亦知道這個是非常敏感既題材,但敏感唔代表唔講得.....中世紀之所以能夠完結都係歸功於公開討論.....

自私d講,我出文後,大家既回應(當然係講客觀和可讀性高的),我係一定得益的......

林sir問題,我可以o甘講,佢都係人,人就一定係有偏頗的(你問下比差人查身份証既金毛強......) 擱下既腦袋就係 係哩個時侯大派用場喇........filter左d偏激既,留下有用的,o甘就好了 因為我相信我總可以係其他人身上學到野,係唔係?

不過,我也開始發覺有點宗教化問題(唔係林sir,係聽眾fans),o甘係唔好架......要用擱下既腦袋丫


further reading: 隨笈 (我好欣賞佢既文,這篇有點激情同challenging,但投資既都係人嘛)


回應:

cory: 我對2318亦係樂觀的,不過真係有小小恨鐵不成鋼之感..我都好想睇到民企係所謂國家專利既行業可以能夠成功,o甘我地股東就happy啦.....

kevin tam(you'll never walk alone): 你既分析好好,我也睇過一篇文(forgot from where),講2318銀行業務係補足佢係農村不足,因為就甘係農村開分銷點會好inefficient,所以希望用銀保來"答夠"




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3 則留言:

匿名 說...

Probably peoples are just too serious about the way Lam Sir expressed during the interview. For me, I think that was just a joke that he used to amuse the audience. That's good for a speaker to have some sense of humor. A man's dignity depends not upon his wealth but upon his character. It really depends on how people view his expression. After all, Lam Sir just honestly and generously shares what he sees and what he feels. Anyone has the choice to follow or not. anyway, that's good for people to debate on this topic, and take things easy :). Btw, your blog is very informative, helpful, and concise. Thanks for sharing ur views too :)

匿名 說...

From Alice

我有匯豐減持的擔憂,因為
i) 匯豐從沒有增持平保,但有增持交通,
ii)匯豐申請大陸的保險牌,亦有交通這個銷售網絡,
iii)平保的模式發展下去,與匯豐很相似,你可講恆生一樣並存,但控股比例不一樣,
iv)千多億集資進行後匯豐的股權更加diluted

請問匯豐對平保的重要性及你認為匯豐減持有何影響?

Cory 說...

國壽真係一間唔錯既保險公司, 純用保險業既model 去睇, 係dominate.

平保太多元化, 你話恨鐵不成鋼, 其實之前既發展已經係好勁. 完全係教材示範, 麥肯錫其中一個招牌作, 問題係跟住去邊度, 如何發展三大支柱, 風險肯定大, 但會有不錯回報.

雖然歷史不能代表一切, 但係我既信心係黎自之前二十年既發展故事.

中國金融業注重人材, 平安系統出左幾多人才, 呢樣野係無可否認. 沒有企業文化, 那有黃埔軍校之名.