內地保險業危中有機

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just heard that the mainland insurers would raise premium:

內 地 保 險 公 司
料 明 年 加 保 費

經 濟 不 景 ， 內 地 40% 保 險 公 司 業 績 未 能 達 標 ， 預 期 保 險 公 司 會 靠 調 高 保 費 彌 補 損 失 。 內 地 保 監 會 統 計 顯 示 ， 第 三 季 開 始 售 險 速 度 明 顯 放 緩 ， 有 保 險 公 司 已 經 將 醫 療 保 險 加 價 20% 。

please refer to my previous article保險業老手分析賺錢模式 ,and you would know that there is not much chance that the mainland insurers would do losing business, given a tightly controlled and oligopolized market such as china.

(there was a reader of this blog who asked why the premium growth slowed down. well, many factors, including economic slowdown and decreasing bankassurance )

below is a quote from 香港商報 (for those who wish to get more "insider" info, they would be glad to know that this newspaper is the preferred window of CIRC)

although i disagree with some points, i think it is a good way of understanding the effect of the 10-point policy from the source close to CIRC

名家指點

現在中國金融業已向優化升級的方向發展，預計內地市場對金融保險產品需求不斷增加，看起來前景樂觀，但這個行業在內地仍處於成長階段，成長不是一條坦途，當中危機隨處可見。

從條例措施見業界弊病

在《中國保險業發展「十一五」規劃綱要》中，已明晰地列出具體政策措施：

一、健全市場體系，增強競爭能力。

二、深化體制改革，轉變增長方式。

三、加強自主創新，拓寬服務領域。

四、提高資金運用水準，增強資產管理能力。

五、統籌空間布局，促進區域協調發展。

六、加強資訊化建設，發揮科技推動作用。

七、提高對外開放水準，開創互利共贏新局面。

八、加強和改善保險監管，健全風險防範機制。

九、實施人才興業戰略，建設高質素人才隊伍。

十、加強法制和文化建設，營造和諧發展環境。

在這一系列的措施內，有些確實指出了當前中國保險業的弊病，例如保險體制改革的迫切性，及保險業和前線人員的監管不足等問題。這些問題都十分實在和切身，也會直接影響保險業在內地的長遠發展。

體制與資金運用待改革

在經濟改革中，保險業面對內地龐大而發展迅速的市場，只要能夠做到以上十項措施，無疑會有無限的發展空間和商機。但要成功落實這些目標卻一點也不容易，當中有兩點不能掉以輕心：體制改革和資金的運用水平。

首先，內地在經濟改革開放過程中，各行各業都一直提倡要改善管理制度，企業治理一直是熱課題，不少的工作坊、研討會也針對企業治理，但無可 諱言的是，內地不論國企還是民企，治理水平一直為人所詬病，在透明度低、公司架構混亂的情况下，公司的公信力會大大降低，然而商譽和誠信度，卻是對金融機 構，尤其是保險公司來說十分重要。內地保險紛紛到境外上市，可見走出去的推動力源自要學習國際管理方式，逐漸和國際水平接軌。要加強公司管理不外乎設立獨 立監管機構，加強責任追究權力，建立健全的決策機制、監督機制和考核機制，進一步規管行政審批，提高透明度，一改以往給人黑箱作業的錯覺，充分發揮保險行 業自律組織的作用。

其次，資金的運用對於保險公司亦是經營的關鍵。在資金運用和風險管理的取舍下，要作出平衡確實是一個難題，尤其是保險公司正面對投資機會不 足、資金過剩的內地金融市場。由於保險金的特質是長期而且偏向穩定，因此一個理想的投資方法是把年期和風險互相配合，但內地由於投資渠道不足，有保險資金 被迫投放在短期投資，形成年期和實際需要的錯配，這存在着一個結構上的不合理，更影響了整個投資盈利的穩定性。因此，假若能夠發掘更多投資渠道，增加收 益，便可使保險業務在內地發展更上一層樓。

以上各項措施都十分重要，而且缺一不可，互相配合才可達致雙贏局面：人民受益而保險公司又可賺大錢。保險業務在中國始終不夠普及化，提高人 民的保險意識是必須的第一步，而這便有賴發展一些能夠切合中國人民需要的保險產品。例如專門為農民而設的保險，尤其是在種植業、養殖業方面的保險支援。農 民占中國總人口比例甚多，若果能夠提供到符合他們需要的產品，吸納到這班客戶群，必定能為保險業帶來可觀而穩定的收入來源。

前景樂觀商機處處

保險業在內地的發展可期是不爭的事實，而且政策的大綱初步已成，現正配合經濟發展步伐而進步。所以，各保險公司的目光都放在內地，只要在建立雛形后不斷改進，配合市場的獨特性，因地制宜，雖然競爭十分激烈，但只要認清市場定位，配合市場需要，定可創造一番新局面。

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AIA重組 在港上市

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better than the previous plan of buying ALICO. i think this time 2628 would be more than happy to invest.

if it goes for ipo, i would subscribe it myself too.

將引入策略股東 中壽興趣大

【明報專訊】AIG（美國國際集團）拆件出售業務解決財困。有消息指出，收入佔集團兩成的亞洲區保險業務AIA（美國友邦保險），出售不多於49％股權之後，將在香港上市。不過，AIA目前首要工作，是重組及出售上述少數股權，而洽購少數股權中，中國人壽（2628）表現得相當有興趣。

一位消息人士說，AIG一直視AIA為重要業務，不會全部出售，但將會採納一套重組方案，務求令AIA的價值最有效地發揮，最終讓AIG既可套取筆巨額資金，又可維持AIG的控制權。

初步的重組方案是，先把不屬於AIA的亞洲業務出售，包括日本、台灣及菲律賓業務，因為這些地區的業務，盈利並不理想。然後將現時兩間AIA公司——AIA香港及AIA百慕達，整合為一間公司，再把這間新的AIA公司的少數股權（不超過49％）售給策略投資者。

中壽冀衝出中國 分散風險

據 了解，中國人壽對此十分有興趣，因為中壽近乎全部盈利來自內地，萬一中國經濟逆轉，中壽將承受巨大風險，故中壽很有興趣透過入股AIA，一次過覆蓋大半個 亞洲區，進而降低本身的風險。最後當策略投資者入股完成，AIA將在本港安排上市，透過上述方案，AIG相信將有既可集資或提升持股權價值的機會。

除了中壽外，AIA吸引不少買家，因為AIA在亞洲擁有最大的團隊，單是香港已有8000名保險從業員，全行人數最多，並有一套運作純熟的系統及網絡。

AIA的亞洲區業務，被AIG視為重點項目，全靠其優秀賺錢能力。早前主席李迪來港時，也強調即使出售AIA，仍會維持大股東身分。

對於會否考慮上市，AIA亞太區發言人回覆稱，根據10月3日母公司AIG的公布，AIG會尋找對AIA有興趣的買家，但只會出售部分權益，AIG會維持為AIA的大股東。

至於被指洽購AIA，中壽董事會秘書局副秘書長藍宇曦表示，並沒有聽說過有關消息，也不知悉董事之間就此事進行過討論。

AIG續售資產救亡

此 外，根據彭博報道，AIG將從事機械相關保險業務的HSB ，以7.42億美元，出售給全球最大再保險商慕尼黑再保（Munich Re）。跟AIG 8年前的買入價12億美元相比，虧蝕三成多。集團又同意出售，以亞洲及中東貴客為主的AIG私人銀行業務，給阿聯酋的阿布扎比，作價2.79億美元。

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so far for the premium growth phase .......

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without the bankasurance, the management has to think of something else.

let's see what will lay ahead for 2009

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An article on Ping An

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the following article was from another blogger in mainland china 李驰_低买高卖

some of you may already know this guy. quite famous in the private equity in china.

i share some of his view on the insurance companies, esp. on Ping An.

as i have said, investors looking for stable business would prefer China Life, while for out-of-expectation stuff, Ping An would be their choice.

平安的保费收入趋势一天不停止增长，平安的投资价值就一天没有结束；

中国股市一天不结束可能超过6124点的特大牛市，人人是股神的日子就还将来临；

人人是股神的时候，平安再傻到那时它的投资对利润的贡献也会大增，与和市场基本同步的公募基金牛市里的凶悍完全一样，只不过那时的平安已坐拥更巨额的保险资金，赚个三五百亿一年将是小菜一碟．平安的股价到时候一样也会再次一冲飞天．［输个200亿一般人输不起，平安例外］

国美已经不是黄光裕一个人的国美，平安也不是马明哲一个人的平安，为什么我们总将一个个人与具有自我修复功能的大型股份制企业混为一谈呢？马明哲的小辫子早已经被深套于平安股票的全国人民揪断了，但沉溺于历史根本于事无补．投资（甚至投机）能赚钱完全是买中了最接近预测的未来．

踏中富通地雷的平安是投资水平＂不行＂甚至奇差无比，但一般人不行时可能已经全套到没有再投资再翻身的钱了，平安依然年年有源源不断的巨额保费资金流入，那是它最强势的＂行＂．［何况平安也在对自己的投资失利闭门反思中．相信它的未来的投资水平怎么样也会有所提高吧］

我们是看到森林，还是仅看到树木？

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Money on tap, but will it reach those in need?

An interesting article from Shirley Yam of SCMP.

The phone rings. You pick up the call and there's a banker, volunteering an instant credit line with no strings attached. To many businessmen, this sounds like a dream. Banks have been tightening their purse strings in the past three months, pushing many corporates to the verge of collapse.

But to Mr Corporate, the financial controller of a listed foreign-owned manufacturer in Guangdong who understandably prefers to remain anonymous, it's all too real.

The call is from one of the top three listed state-owned commercial banks, with which his firm normally has little contact.

It is offering a 20 million yuan (HK$22.6 million) "clean" loan for each factory: no site visit, no meet-the-management session, no collateral required. All you need to do is say "yes" and sign the paper.

"I couldn't believe my ears," said Mr Corporate.

Less than a year ago, the same bank had fobbed him off with a credit line of only 3 million yuan, despite the firm's US$1 billion in revenues, a sizeable fixed deposit account and much string-pulling.

Now, a new rule is in place. Within days, he got two US$20 million 12-month credit lines for two factories at about 5 per cent interest, a standard 10 per cent discount to the rate set by the People's Bank of China.

This demonstrates the power of the government in such mass "campaigns".

In an attempt to boost the economy and employment, Beijing has been pump priming and ordering banks to lend.

State leaders have made bold statements. Government television carries slogans like "Together we can face the challenge". The loan quotas of policy banks were immediately raised by 500 billion yuan. A decades-old loan cap for commercial banks was removed by the PBOC.

Bank regulators, who only nine months ago had told banks to tighten credit, are now asking them to work with corporates to fight the economic winter and expand their loans, particularly to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and farmers.

Within weeks, different banks churned out new lending targets with double digit growth and competing loan schemes targeting SMEs.

Mr Corporate's loan from heaven is a showcase. It will look good on the bank's report to the state for several reasons. The firm is a privately owned medium-sized operation. It is located in the Pearl River Delta, where factories have been hit hard by the US slowdown and tens of thousands of workers have been laid off. It is a "new" client. Two factories have been "saved".

However, a little bit of digging shows that behind all the hype, banks are just putting on a fa�ade to satisfy the authorities.

Mr Corporate's firm indeed fits all the criteria for financial assistance - the trouble is it doesn't need a loan at all. It has zero gearing. Its earlier application for a yuan loan was solely designed to reduce its currency exposure when the yuan was appreciating and buyers paid it in dollars.

"It won't do us any harm by having a credit line ready. After all, cash is king nowadays," said Mr Corporate in explaining his decision to borrow.

So, not a single cent of the loan has been drawn down so far.

Here is a case of a mainland bank throwing cash at those who they feel are safe but not at those in need. I can't say how typical this is of the whole sector. But the undeniable fact is that banks are behaving differently from what we saw in the last spending spree, back in the late 1990s.

Instead of blindly taking orders, they are charting a difficult course between their role as government-controlled entities and as listed companies accountable - or at least theoretically accountable - to their shareholders.

This difficulty is best reflected in the latest remarks from the chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, Liu Mingkang. While calling on banks to lend to those with cash flow and liquidity problems, he warned against lending to industries suffering from overcapacity and poor management.

From this, three implications follow.

First, those in dire financial straits are not getting the money. The power of the relaxed lending policy to save jobs is doubtful.

Second, while it is good that mainland banks have finally become more risk-averse, their "churn-out" mode to satisfy political concerns makes me uncomfortable. After all, they do not have a good track record of telling gems from stones. And, to a lesser extent, the bad-debt concern remains valid.

Third, if this case does reflect bankers' more conservative mentality, I would not put too much faith in the multiplier effect that economists claim trillions in government spending will have on the private sector.

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資料中心

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中國人壽上海資料中心於12月9日正式開工建設。該中心位於浦東新區張江金融產業園區二期，占地80畝，總建築規模約12萬平方米，全部工程預計2011年完成。

中國人壽有關負責人表示，此次開工的上海資料中心是中國人壽正致力建設的“兩地三中心”之一，將承擔中國人壽全系統的資訊系統運行、監控、維護和管理。除 了資料中心，中國人壽還將在上海建設一座同城備份中心，為資料中心進行即時資料備份。而之前已在北京動工的研發中心，則將承擔中國人壽全系統的IT研發、 測試任務，同時承擔上海資料中心的異地災備。

據悉，包括新開工的中國人壽上海資料中心在內，截至目前已有17個全國性中後臺運營項目簽約落戶張江金融產業園區。

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sit tight, my friend

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many friends asked about my opinion on today's rise.

as my idol charlie munger puts it this way: i have nothing to add.

sit tight my friends, and enjoy the feast.

been reading "stocks for the long run" by siegel. those who treat stocks seriously should read it carefully.

上週五，中國人壽總裁萬峰在保險業召開「紀念改革開放三十年」座談會上表示，要加快加大改革創新力度，不斷推動業務發展，增加公司的資金實力和社會影響，為資本運作打下堅實的基礎。要大力推進資本運作，實現中國人壽的跨越式發展。

　 　他表示，中國人壽正在繼續深化發展機制改革，不斷推進公司又好又快發展，探索國際頂級金融保險集團建設的科學之路。積極探索業務發展與資本運作相互促 進、相互支持的發展道路，轉變發展方式，提高發展質量。通過兼併、收購等資本運作方式進入銀行、證券、基金、信託等保險以外的其他金融領域和海外市場，加 快集團化綜合經營及國際化步伐。

　　今年截至10月底，中國人壽總保費收入達到2858億元，同比增長51%。其中，壽險保費收入2816 億元，同比增長49%；財產險保費收入43億元，養老保險公司累計中標受托資產管理規模77億元。集團總資產達1.23萬億元，為2003年重組時的4 倍。至今已連續6年入選《財富》全球500強企業，排名上升至159位。品牌價值由五年前的427.67億元提升到了現在的688.72億元，居世界品牌 第280位，成為我國唯一入選的保險品牌。

　　他表示，要穩步推進國際化進程，不斷提高參與國際競爭的廣度和深度，確立國際頂級金融保險集 團的地位。要以海外公司為依托，探索海外保險業務發展的道路。要以資產管理香港公司為平台，實現資產的全球配置和運作。要以資本運作為手段，高起點進入全 球金融保險市場。要密切關注國際金融保險市場動態，抓住有利時機，充分利用合資、收購、兼併等靈活多樣的手段，快速進入國際市場。

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