成功投資人應有的境界

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昨天於ASIA WALL STREET JOURNAL看到的，屬近期佳作，分享下

想投資成功，便要係所謂熊市買入優良公司的股票，但這正是違反人本性（面對危機害怕，處於順景則心洪），這篇文可以幫助你違反（面對危機害怕）這個本性

其中，他說出一個有趣的地方，為何這麼多市場人士在Panicking，其原因在於他們的生活也受這次所謂熊市影響（if your neighbors are losing their jobs it's a recession; if you are losing yours it's a depression.）

而以前有一些非參與市場的有識之士，可以獨立地發表較客觀的意見．這些人也不見了（In an earlier generation, many of the best-known forecasters ran economics departments in nonfinancial companies. Today these are a dying breed, thanks to the past decades of corporate cost-cutting.）

可悲嗎？也不是，只要你自己，也只有你自己可以幫助你成功了．．．．．．

Economics as Metaphor

By DAVID RANSON

Many newspaper readers, recalling what they read at the beginning of this year, must be rubbing their eyes. How can the economy still be functioning despite the perfect storm of recession and housing collapse that was supposed to engulf it?

Although markets are volatile and segments of the country are having a hard time, the national output is up, not down, this year. How has the economy pulled this off? Is there something the pessimists were missing?

The answer is yes, and here's why. People tend to anthropomorphize the world around them, and not just in economics. We look at the outside world and assume that it is governed in the same way as our own lives. For example, we're mystified by Mother Nature's apparent heartlessness and large-scale disregard for what we cherish: order, justice and the sanctity of life. We still resist the notion that we can't dictate the course of the Mississippi, control the way the planet evolves, or equalize the distribution of income.

The same parochial streak in human nature is rife in economic commentary. In the context of a household or a business, debt is a burden and can become a threat. But for society as a whole, debt finance is a prime means of capitalizing production and growth.

It's extraordinary, then, that in national debate the narrow view drowns out the broad. Aggregate private debt and trade deficits are widely regarded with equal suspicion and fear -- even by "experts." Instead of celebrating the role that private debt has played in creating prosperity, many blame "excessive" debt when things go wrong, and cite it as a basis for pessimism.

At the micro level, the failure of an institution is often a disaster to those with a personal stake. But from an overall perspective, when one institution becomes insolvent, another can be relied on to pick up its functions.

Again, it's the localized human costs that exercise the political imagination. The benefits of systemic adaptability are taken for granted. Government responds to constituencies and takes great pains to preserve the existing institutional structure, sometimes guaranteeing or bailing out failing firms. It's widely assumed that a large enough wave of bankruptcies will bring the economy down. Little or no credit is given to the ability of the economic system to heal itself and find its way back to vitality.

What's excessive now is fear, not debt: Fears of insolvency and private-sector indebtedness are misplaced and harmful. They place obstacles in the way of ill-used capital that seeks to move toward safer and more profitable employment. They plunge the stock market into turbulence. They push government into hasty actions that intrude more aggressively into private choices and decisions. They undercut the market-price system, without which the economy cannot allocate resources productively. Last but not least, these fears trigger the proverbial false alarm in a crowded theater, sending everyone stampeding for the exits.

Economists have a professional duty to transmit the more broad-minded vision of the world that their discipline reveals. But economists are parochial too.

There's an old saying that if your neighbors are losing their jobs it's a recession; if you are losing yours it's a depression. It's therefore unfortunate that such a large fraction of prominent forecasters hails from the financial community. Their views are colored by the turmoil suffered in their industry. In an earlier generation, many of the best-known forecasters ran economics departments in nonfinancial companies. Today these are a dying breed, thanks to the past decades of corporate cost-cutting.

We are not a nation of whiners, but we do have a lot of alarmists. It is becoming politically incorrect to suggest that the economy is basically sound.

We shouldn't expect forecasters to shrug off the depressing effects of what's happening in their own back yards. This is human nature. We just need to keep things in perspective when we listen to them. A more objective diagnosis is especially needed during an election year, in which many unfounded fears are broadcast and amplified by the media.

A natural system has built-in redundancy. It manages and heals itself. The economic system is no exception. On this page about 10 years ago, Penny Russell and I argued against the idea that the economy is a "house of cards," susceptible to collapse as soon as a few cards are dislodged. We suggested that it's more like a beehive. The future of the hive does not depend on full employment for all the worker bees. In fact, an accident can put many bees out of action without compromising the hive as a whole.

Metaphors are important. If they are off the mark, they can deceive. But good metaphors can help maintain perspective amid chaos. The community of banks, for example, can be likened to players in a game of musical chairs. As the music stops, some comfortable backsides are thrown out to be replaced with fresh ones. When the music resumes, wealth has been redistributed, and livelihoods have been turned upside down, but the game goes on.

Most businesses and workers hurt by this financial chaos are as innocent as those whose farms were flooded by torrential rains in Iowa. In nature's rough justice, short-sighted decisions by some can cause much hardship for others. Yet despite the human tragedies at the local level, the system as a whole muddles through.

Failure to recognize this endangers the mental health of our society. We create a far bigger tragedy when we lose heart, change the rules of the game, or act recklessly with quick fixes.

Mr. Ranson is head of research at H.C. Wainwright & Co., Economics Inc.

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